By Jason Davis – WASHINGTON, DC (Sep 30, 2014) US Soccer Players – Before choosing a lineup or kicking a ball, professional soccer clubs prime themselves for a new campaign by setting a level of expectation. Sometimes, these things coalesce of their own accord, usually based on a standard set in previous seasons. Sometimes, it’s a function of spending or ambition. Quite often, executives and coaches set the bar with public proclamations of what is, or is not, good enough for their teams.
As the 2014 MLS regular season winds down, it seems as appropriate time as any to look at where various MLS teams stands in relation to their expectations for the 2014 season. What is good enough for some just won’t do for others. There’s also an evolution of dreams to consider. For a handful of teams, things have shifted dramatically based on their results, and what might have been good enough back in the spring will no longer satisfy.
MLS Cup or Bust
There’s only one thing that will do for the top tier MLS clubs. Lifting the MLS Cup trophy as champions come the full-time whistle on December 7.
This group includes the obvious. Clubs like the Seattle Sounders, LA Galaxy, plus defending champions Sporting Kansas City. Joining them are the always ambitious-on-a-budget Real Salt Lake. Three of those four have MLS titles to their name. Seattle has big crowds and big spending to raise expectations. Sporting Kansas City lifted themselves into the hierarchy of clubs who believe that championships are the only goal worth attaining.
There is one wrinkle worth mentioning for all of these teams, a sort of ancillary part of the “MLS Cup or bust” mentality. For each, the secondary goal is to win the Supporters’ Shield for best record in the regular season. It’s another trophy for the display case and can help the playoff cause through home field advantage. It’s also a guaranteed spot in the CONCACAF Champions League, regardless of what happens during the MLS playoffs.
Let’s add another club to this category. Though they embody the reality of shifting goals as the season played out, the Portland Timbers are part of this discussion. Off the back of their first place finish in the Western Conference in 2013 and subsequent ouster of the Sounders in the playoffs, Portland set their sights on an MLS Cup title this season. With their struggles to climb back into the playoff race, however, it’s quite possible the Timbers might be happy to simply to make the postseason.
A Deep Run
Though winning a championship is every MLS team’s goal before the season begins, some clubs will take making the playoffs and showing that they’re stronger than expected. This is usually the result of having a longer term plan for reaching the league’s top tier, or a corollary to possessing exciting young talent who might not yet be ready to take a club all the way.
This group includes FC Dallas, a historically up-and-down club who breathed new life into their fortunes with the signing of head coach Oscar Pareja. Dallas has talent, and understood their potential entering the year, but was also mindful of the steps needed to become true title contenders. To this point in the season, FC Dallas has been good enough to establish themselves as a likely playoff team and real threat to the Galaxy, the Sounders, and RSL. That begets the dream of an MLS Cup title, though a deep run would be good enough for now.
The New England Revolution are part of this group as well. The Revs youngish team and penchant for open soccer always had the look of a work-in-progress. Last year, New England pushed Sporting KC to the brink in the playoffs, setting the stage for greater expectations in 2014. That said, the club’s overall irrelevance in recent seasons means making the playoffs but coming up short of the actual championship is still an important push in the right direction. With the talent in the team, and Jermaine Jones settling into life in MLS, any relatively deep run would be enough to prime the pump for championship expectations in 2015.
For lack of a better fit, DC United is also in the “deep run” group. So much of the club’s expectations spring from last season’s last place campaign, that even holding onto first in the Eastern Conference with an eye towards the top seed (and an outside shot at the Supporter’s Shield) doesn’t push Ben Olsen’s team into the group that expects to win a championship. Can United get it done? On the evidence of the regular season, they might be, but with the rebuild they undertook last winter, it seems reasonable to think they’d be satisfied with a playoff run that ends up short of a trophy.
As for the New York Red Bulls, any trophy will do for an original MLS franchise with just one to their credit. The goal from season-to-season can’t possibly be the MLS Cup title, despite the clubs spending, because no evidence exists that New York is capable of winning it. For the time being, the Red Bulls are a team that should expect to make the playoffs and progress past the first round. That doesn’t make them an MLS Cup favorite.
Typically, this is Houston’s range as well, though Dom Kinnear’s team is difficult to gauge because of their slow-play regular season style. Once into the playoffs, the Dynamo expect to win trophies. Unfortunately, just making the postseason is proving difficult in 2014.
Just Get In
Naturally, this is the largest group of MLS teams left in play this season. Among the clubs for whom a playoff berth might be enough success to promote good feelings moving into 2014 are contenders for spots Toronto FC, Philadelphia, Columbus, and Vancouver.
The Colorado Rapids are well off the pace at this point despite some exciting talent. Considering this is a team with a rookie head coach in Pablo Mastroeni, a playoff berth would have done the job this season. If the bottom feeders of MLS (Chicago, Montreal, San Jose, and Chivas USA) deserve mention at all, this is also the group they’d inhabit.
Toronto FC’s drive for the MSL playoffs and the celebration that would ensue if they made it is a function of the club’s longstanding failure. Getting into the postseason would be such an achievement for the Reds that any subsequent success would be icing on the cake.
Down the list are clubs who made nominal moves to keep up with the bigger spenders in the league but don’t have, or won’t use, the resources. For these clubs—the Union, the Crew, and the Whitecaps—the playoffs are the goal heading into each new campaign. Simply getting in, depending on how the playoffs unfold, might not be enough in every case. Then again, barely missing out wouldn’t be an overwhelming failure.
Jason Davis is the founder of MatchFitUSA.com and the co-host of The Best Soccer Show. Contact him: matchfitusa@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter:http://twitter.com/davisjsn.
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