By J Hutcherson – WASHINGTON, DC (Feb 19, 2015) US Soccer Players – Once upon a time, a soccer confederation that figured out how to make money from what the rest of the world saw as nothing. CONCACAF built itself up as the global interest in soccer increased in the 1990s. Their championship might not match Europe’s or South America’s, but it became lucrative first by involving countries outside North and Central America, then by setting up shop in the United States with a move from January to summer.
CONCACAF’s success created issues that ended up with FIFA investigations and leadership changes. That’s the polite way to summarize the transition CONCACAF went through in 2011 and 2012. What hasn’t changed about CONCACAF is its own self-interpretation. This is still the horizon line for global soccer, a market with the three North American countries that represents so much potential for interest and revenue. It’s no knock against organized soccer that those two concepts tend to link.
What that means for CONCACAF is another rendition of an old argument. The region deserves four World Cup places, not three and a half. The quality of play here is good, pushing the standard higher and turning World Cup qualifying into a struggle even for the best teams. Those teams that emerge do well, three out of four making the Round of 16 in the last World Cup and one advancing to the quarterfinals. The CONCACAF teams also playing in South America’s confederation championship now leads to a join Copa America scheduled for the United States next summer. For CONCACAF, it’s never been better.
That’s the party line, pushing CONCACAF forward in a way that’s not a radical shift from what came before. Like what came before, there’s one major problem. The quality of play across CONCACAF isn’t very good.
CONCACAF opted to start the 2018 World Cup Qualifying cycle as soon as possible. The First Round starts next month. The major teams enter in the Fourth Round, beginning on November 9. The 2015 Gold Cup slots in over the summer. It’s a good question why CONCACAF leadership believes it takes so long with so many games to get to the Fifth and final round of qualifying. The Hexagonal is CONCACAF from a global perspective. It’s the same teams likeliest to win the Gold Cup. It’s also the best CONCACAF has to offer. At no point in its history, has this been a strength for CONCACAF.
By design, CONCACAF insists on splitting its territory into regions. The North American zone has three teams, the two biggest in the region in the United States and Mexico along with Canada. Seven teams are in the Central America zone with the remaining 31 in the Caribbean. It’s the bulk of the Caribbean teams that the early rounds of qualifying have to address. The numbers require knocking out teams as quickly as possible. CONCACAF qualifying seeds teams into the Fourth Round, admitting the disparity in the region.
The problem for CONCACAF is even those final six aren’t necessarily pushing up the standard. Mexico’s struggles in the last World Cup qualifying cycle flattered CONCACAF. So did the emergence of Costa Rica. Both in their own way played down the relative weakness of the region, something that hasn’t improved alongside the better produced tournaments and tweaks on World Cup qualifying.
FIFA itself makes that point clear on a Thursday every month when it releases the World Rankings. Right now, Costa Rica is the top team in CONCACAF, but few believe that will hold through the summer. Mexico and the United States are normally the top clubs, with a significant gulf between them and everybody else. When a competitor to those two emerges in the region, it’s normally not for very long.
What CONCACAF does have is potential. Unfortunately, it’s the same potential that’s existed for decades. Canada should be a stronger soccer country. Jamaica should be a stronger soccer country. Trinidad & Tobago should be a stronger soccer country. Honduras should be a stronger soccer country.
Instead, CONCACAF deals with what happens during every qualifying cycle in its modern era. Pundits will play up the difficulty of getting a result away from home in the region while the usual suspects take their regular places in the World Cup. That’s not a mandate for a fourth World Cup spot. If anything, it’s a reason to reconsider that half place.
CONCACAF spent a long time building itself up under its previous leadership. The confederation itself became a profit center. It’s biggest teams became economic powers, especially the United States. The entire region uses the United States as a revenue generator, with Mexico staging most of their friendlies in the US. Every now and then, CONCACAF will talk about moving the Gold Cup somewhere else, but that doesn’t make financial sense.
Fair enough from a financial perspective, but what about sporting? CONCACAF in theory is a region that should have at least six strong teams with another emerging group beneath them. Instead, it’s more predictable than any Confederation since Australia left Oceania. The United States, Mexico, and Honduras or Costa Rica. Honorable mention to Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago, both nowhere near as strong as they once were. Add in the Canada problem, and it’s a region that the FIFA Rankings get right. There should be a substantial points gap between the top clubs and the rest.
CONCACAF in theory will never be CONMEBOL, but it could certainly challenge CAF for the third strongest region in world soccer. In practice, it’s a region facing a competition issue. That’s the CONCACAF problem, figuring out why so many of its National Teams consistently underachieve.
J Hutcherson started covering soccer in 1999 and has worked as the general manager of the US National Soccer Team Players Association since 2002. Contact him atjhutcherson@usnstpa.com.
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