The version of the US National Team that returns to international duty for games against Ecuador on October 10 (Q2 Stadium – 8:30pm ET – TNT) and Australia (Dick’s Sporting Goods Park – 9pm ET – TNT) is closer to first choice than the slightly more experimental roster we saw in September. While it’s expecting too much to have complete availability up and down any roster in a given release window, the exceptions in this camp are a fairly short list, mostly due to injury and recovery concerns. What this creates is the expectation of a first-choice lineup capable of performing well against opponents ranked 24th and 25th in the latest FIFA World Rankings.
There are only four matchdays between now and the World Cup draw on December 5. Once the teams know their group stage opponents, the scope of World Cup preparation changes. After December 5, those tactics that produced under specific circumstances in qualifying or that seemed like an excellent idea in September might require another look as technical staffs prepare for the next full squad availability in March. What that means in October for national teams that have already qualified is a slightly different version of what we already know from previous friendly windows. The USMNT technical staff stressed opportunity in September. While opportunity certainly still exists, the shift towards building as much familiarity as possible with a strategic plan becomes paramount. That’s the simple reality of international soccer, with so few windows available between now and the next games that count when the World Cup begins in mid-June.
Is this a group of players that will benefit from a back three instead of a back four? How many players pick up defensive assignments in a five-man midfield? Will there be true wingers on either side of a target forward, or is there room for a withdrawn forward in a striker/center-forward partnership? What tactical shifts can happen when the team is holding a lead or playing from behind?
Club soccer works these out and works them out all over again, with the only thing interrupting training sessions being players leaving for international duty. The proof of concept happens weekly, sometimes more than once. There’s no lag between idea and execution, the kind of thing that can’t help but increase the level of difficulty in international soccer.
For the USMNT technical staff, their current plans will first be tested against a strong Ecuador team. While Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo isn’t in this squad, Ecuador presents a clear challenge. Their run in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying might have included four consecutive scoreless draws, but it ended with a 1-0 home win over Argentina last month. Ecuador qualified for the World Cup in 2nd-place in South America, and they haven’t lost a game in over a year.
What stands out over that run are the six scoreless draws, all in qualifying. Let’s take the June 5 qualifier against Brazil as an example. At home, Ecuador had the lead on shots 7 to 3 and the edge on shots on goal 3 to 2. They held 53% of the possession, the slight edge on passing, and created four corners to Brazil’s three. That’s an advantage draw, where Ecuador looked like the team in a slightly better position to take all three points. Playing out of a 4-4-2, coach Sebastian Beccacece’s squad risks enough to get a result, something that is extremely difficult to do consistently at the national team level.
From there, the USMNT closes out the October window against Australia, another team that hasn’t lost in over a year and has won all of their games in 2025. They finished second in the Asian Football Confederation’s group C to qualify for the World Cup, trailing group winners Japan by four points. While it’s a different version of the USMNT, it’s certainly worth looking at what worked for the United States against Japan last month when considering Australia.
We’re going right back to June 5 for our Australia example, a 1-0 home win over Japan. Australia won the game late from an Aziz Behich goal in the 90th minute. They finished with 6 shots on goal to Japan’s 13, putting 3 on frame to 1 for Japan. Japan had 69% of the possession, more than double the number of passes, and eight corners to Australia’s one. The quick takeaway is that Australia has no problem waiting for the one opportunity while keeping themselves in games to make that one opportunity count. Their 3-4-2-1 under coach Tony Popovic works, with Australia willing to give up possession and absorb pressure. Their other World Cup qualifier in the June window saw Saudi Arabia lose 2-1 after holding 71% of the possession. The stats flattering the losing team say relatively little about what Australia is doing so well across their undefeated run.
So, where this leaves the USMNT in advance of their October games should be clear. They need to show they can match well against two very good, but demonstrably different teams. A draw is not a win against Ecuador, a team fully comfortable to end a game just how it began. Finishing ahead across multiple statistical categories is not how to beat Australia. Showing the tactical acumen to address both of those big-picture scenarios is what builds value from the October 2025 international window.
